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Four teams remain, and for the first time on record they are the world’s four top-ranked sides — France, Spain, England and Argentina. France sit clear at the top of the winner market; the rest is a scrap. Here is the outright board, the implied probabilities and where the value hides, for Kiwi punters weighing an each-way angle before the semis.
Outright winner board
| Selection | Decimal odds | Implied prob. | Movement (24h) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.37–2.50 | ~41% | Flat — clear favourite |
| Spain | 4.20–4.33 | ~23% | Shortened (range compressing) |
| England | 4.10–4.40 | ~23% | Shortened (post-QF) |
| Argentina | 4.60–5.50 | ~19% | Drifted on most books |
Decimal odds, FanDuel via FOX / DraftKings via SI / Oddspedia, as of 13 July ~14:15 ET → 14 July AM. Implied probabilities are approximate and include the book margin, so they sum above 100%.
The second-favourite disagreement
The books do not agree on who is second behind France — and that split is worth reading before you bet.
Reading the market
- France (2.37–2.50) — the only side priced as a genuine favourite; short, but they have the tournament’s best attack and a perfect record.
- Spain (4.20–4.33) — best defence in the tournament and a psychological edge over France, but must get past them first.
- England (4.10–4.40) — value depends on your book; the QF win over Norway tightened their range.
- Argentina (4.60–5.50) — the longest of the four and drifting, yet carry Messi and the tournament’s top scoring line.
The Golden Boot sub-market
Two of the four contenders also head the top-scorer market, level on eight goals.
| Player | Team | Golden Boot odds | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | France | 1.71–2.10 | 8 |
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | 2.45 | 8 |
| Harry Kane | England | 13.00 | 6 |
| Jude Bellingham | England | 14.00+ | 6 |
Golden Boot odds (decimal), FanDuel via FOX, as of 13 July 13:23 → 14 July AM. Mbappé is favourite on the assists tiebreak (3 to 2); only the four surviving nations can still add goals.
Value angle for Kiwi punters
With four elite sides left, no book runs a labelled dark-horse market — England and Argentina are effectively the value outsiders behind France and Spain. If you fancy a semi-final upset, the two "second favourites" offer the widest price disagreement, and Argentina’s drift gives the boldest each-way punt. Whatever you back, line-shop across books and treat the implied probabilities as a guide, not a guarantee.
For the tie-by-tie read see the semi-finals preview and today’s SF1 betting tips. Compare live markets on the odds page and browse value bets.
Where to bet (NZ): compare outright World Cup winner prices in NZD at Boomerang Bet, ZotaBet or RichRoyal — decimal odds, 18+.
Gamble responsibly. 18+. See NZ betting law and set a limit.
