Updated July 2026
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At 1.39, Brazil are clear favourites (implied probability ~72%). But three factors push value toward the goal markets rather than the result: Neymar’s return, Raphinha’s absence and the Miami heat. We break it down below for Kiwi punters — kick-off lands at a friendly 10:00 AM NZT.
The essentials
When (NZT)
10:00 AM, 25 June — Miami
Odds (1X2)
Brazil 1.39 · draw 5.25 · Scotland 9.50
Implied probability
Brazil ~72%
Team news
Neymar returns; Raphinha out (injury)
Group C picture
| Team | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 4 | 3–0 v Haiti, 1–1 v Morocco |
| Morocco | 4 | level on points, top |
| Scotland | 3 | 0–1 v Morocco, 1–0 v Haiti |
| Haiti | 0 | all but out |
Data as of 23 June. Brazil chase top spot; Scotland must win.
Odds and the read
| Outcome | Odds | Source (23 Jun) |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1.39 | BetMGM / Racing Post |
| Draw | 5.25 | BetMGM / Racing Post |
| Scotland | 9.50 | BetMGM / Racing Post |
The swing factor is the attack: Neymar returns after two games out (calf), but Raphinha is injured — a heavy swap. Add a heat index around 39°C and storm risk, which slow the tempo.
Brazil should win (1.39), but heat, likely rotation and a half-fit Neymar argue against backing a big winning margin. A price is never a guarantee.
More on the favourites in Brazil and the full group in Group C. Compare lines in the odds section.
Gamble responsibly. 18+. See NZ betting law and set a limit.
