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Four teams are left, and for the first time since FIFA rankings began in 1992 they are the world’s top four ranked sides — France, Spain, England and Argentina, all past world champions. Both semi-finals land as 07:00 NZT breakfast kick-offs: France vs Spain on Wednesday, England vs Argentina on Thursday. Here is the scannable read for Kiwi punters — routes, odds and where the value sits.
The final four at a glance
| Team | Route to the semis | Form (last 5) | Outright odds | Key man |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 6-0-0, 16 GF · QF 2–0 Morocco | W-W-W-W-W | 2.37–2.50 | Mbappé (8) |
| Spain | 1 GA all tournament · QF 2–1 Belgium | W-W-W-W-D | 4.20–4.33 | Yamal |
| England | QF 2–1 (aet) Norway · R16 3–2 Mexico | W-W-W-W-D | 4.10–4.40 | Bellingham (6) |
| Argentina | Tournament-high 17 GF · QF 3–1 (aet) Switzerland | W-W-W-W-W | 4.60–5.50 | Messi (8) |
Outright winner odds (decimal), FanDuel via FOX / DraftKings via SI, as of 13 July ~14:15 ET → 14 July AM. Ranges; compare live prices before betting.
Semi-final 1 — France vs Spain
France are the tournament’s best attack (16 goals), Spain the best defence — one goal conceded all tournament and a record six straight clean sheets earlier in the run. Spain also carry recent history: they have won three of the last four meetings, including the Euro 2024 semi-final (2–1) and the 2025 Nations League semi (5–4). The only prior World Cup meeting was 2006 (France 3–1).
"It’s not an exaggeration to describe this match as a final before the final." — Luis de la Fuente (Spain coach), SuperSport, 11 July 2026.
Semi-final 2 — England vs Argentina
The tie revives a charged rivalry — the first World Cup meeting since 2002 (England 1–0, Beckham penalty), with 1986 and 1998 in the backdrop. Argentina lead the tournament’s scoring charts and bid to become only the third nation to defend a World Cup; England chase a first final since 1966. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham lead the Three Lions on six goals apiece; Messi is level at the top of the scoring chart on eight. England are without the suspended Jarell Quansah.
Outright winner market
France sit clear at the top; the books split on who is second. FanDuel prices England just ahead of Spain, while DraftKings has Spain ahead of England — a genuine market disagreement rather than a settled order. Argentina are the longest of the four on most books.
| Selection | Outright odds | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|
| France | 2.37–2.50 | ~41% |
| Spain | 4.20–4.33 | ~23% |
| England | 4.10–4.40 | ~23% |
| Argentina | 4.60–5.50 | ~19% |
Decimal odds, FanDuel via FOX / DraftKings via SI, 13 July ~14:15 ET → 14 July AM. Implied probabilities are approximate and include the book margin.
Golden Boot: level at the top
Golden Boot odds (decimal), FanDuel via FOX, as of 13 July 13:23 → 14 July AM. Standings to 11 July.
What it means for Kiwi fans
Both semis are 07:00 NZT starts — proper breakfast football, and a far friendlier slot than Europe’s late night. France are favourites in every market, but Spain’s defence and psychological edge make SF1 a live coin-flip on the draw-or-Spain side, and SF2 is rated the tighter tie of the two.
- SF1 France vs Spain — 07:00 NZT Wednesday; France 2.35, but Spain won three of the last four meetings.
- SF2 England vs Argentina — 07:00 NZT Thursday; rated the closer tie, first WC meeting since 2002.
- France are clear outright favourites (2.37–2.50); books split on the second favourite.
- Mbappé and Messi share top spot on 8 goals.
For the deep dives, see the standalone France vs Spain preview and England vs Argentina preview, and today’s SF1 betting tips. Compare markets on the odds page and track the knockout bracket.
Where to bet (NZ): compare the semi-final 1X2, outright and goal markets in NZD at Boomerang Bet, ZotaBet or BetiBet — decimal odds, 18+.
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