Updated July 2026
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The tournament enters its most tactical phase: the final group round, from 24 June, starts cutting teams. Three sides are already through, three more lead their groups on full points, and half a dozen groups are still wide open — including New Zealand’s Group G. Below is who’s safe, who’s at risk, and what it all means before the final round.
Already through
| Team | Group | Pts | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | I | 6 (+5) | through, top |
| Norway | I | 6 (+4) | through |
| Argentina | J | 6 (+5) | through |
| Mexico | A | 6 | commanding |
| USA | D | 6 | commanding |
| Germany | E | 6 | commanding |
Data as of 23 June.
Still open
| Group | Situation | Final-round key match |
|---|---|---|
| B | Canada & Switzerland on 4 | Switzerland–Canada (24 Jun) |
| C | Brazil & Morocco on 4, Scotland 3 | Scotland–Brazil (24 Jun) |
| F | Netherlands & Japan on 4, Sweden 3 | Sweden–Japan (25 Jun) |
| G | Egypt 4, Iran & Belgium 2, NZ 1 | New Zealand–Belgium (26–27 Jun) |
| H | Spain 4, Uruguay & Cape Verde 2 | fixtures 26 Jun |
| L | England & Ghana on 3 | England–Ghana (24 Jun NZT) |
What it means for betting
Do
- Look for value in teams that still need a result
- Consider Unders and double chance in must-win games
- Factor goal difference into the race for second
Don’t
- Back already-qualified sides at short prices
- Ignore rotation from teams who are through
- Chase a price after the news has landed
- France, Norway and Argentina are through; Mexico, USA and Germany are commanding.
- New Zealand (Group G) are alive but need a win over Belgium plus help elsewhere.
- Groups B, C, F, G and H are still open — decided on fine margins.
- In must-win games the play often tightens: consider Unders and double chance.
See the full groups overview and longer-term predictions.
Gamble responsibly. 18+. Set a limit and stick to it.
